The real key is what needs to be said after this sentence: What will cars become?
We will no longer emphasize clich é s such as "mobile terminals" and "X-screen", and set aside these functional surface features. We should focus on its future product attributes, which is also what this article aims to say. Cars will become truly popular consumer goods.
Threshold
Driving is a matter with a threshold, and drivers must have a driver's license. "Being able to drive" was still a skill twenty years ago. The male protagonist of "Passionate" scolded his leader in dialect for his "slutty" voice while drinking water. After failing in business, he learned to drive and said, "We need to learn a craft well."
When "old driver" was not yet an internet term, it was used to show respect to drivers who understand cars and have good driving skills. Nowadays, cars are actually designed for so-called experienced drivers in many aspects. First of all, "driving experience" largely refers to handling, while other functions such as icons on various buttons are often difficult to understand at a glance, and the text is always abbreviated in English. Novices who buy a car have to spend a long time flipping through the manual and asking people to understand how to use many functions. Taking the heating function of a rearview mirror as an example, it is not uncommon for beginners to call someone and ask where the control button for this function is when encountering rainy or snowy weather.
The text on the function buttons of a certain German B-class car, Japanese intermediate car, and autonomous SUV are all English abbreviations without exception
An important design concept of the iPhone is to enable users to know how to use it immediately upon receiving the phone, and in fact, users can often achieve this in the vast majority of functions. We can call this design concept "self cultivation of mass consumer goods", which is something that mass consumer goods must achieve.
The technology and culture podcast "One Day World" mentioned in a previous episode that the new Mac Pro's "Touch Bar" was created with a hatred for shortcut keys. Users are accustomed to using physical keyboards and are familiar with the functions of various multi key combinations of shortcut keys. But a true mass consumer product is not designed for those so-called "users", but should be designed for those "novices" who know nothing about the product.
Jonathan Ive's view on physical keyboards is: "There are many layers of input buried in traditional keyboards, and we can accept those complex input methods mainly because of habit and familiarity."
The shackles that a successful mass consumer product needs to break free from are the "habits and familiarity" of its users. If Jonathan Ive's viewpoint is not yet direct enough, we can refer to the famous quote by Dr. Mo, Walter Mossberg, in his column in The Wall Street Journal: "Computers are too difficult to use, it's not your fault, revolutionaries designed computers for you."
"Computers are too difficult to use, it's not your fault. The revolutionaries designed computers for 'you'."
This is exactly the meaning of what we have been talking about as "technological democracy". Technology aims to bring democracy and cut down the barriers to product use, and it precisely targets the hegemony of the so-called "users". When automatic transmission technology emerged decades ago, experienced drivers inevitably looked down upon it, and even today many people still emphasize the "driving pleasure" of manual transmission. Previously, someone even commented on the automatic parking function and said, "This also needs to be automatic, and that also needs to be automatic. Do you really want to 'drive'?"
If a host factory's loyal users are precisely those who are accustomed to disdaining novice users, then the host factory must already examine its future attitude towards technological innovation. Automation is undoubtedly the future of automobiles, and autonomous driving will eventually make cars a true mass consumer product. Users can purchase and use cars independently at any time without having to take a driver's license.
Technological innovation itself is aimed at enabling more new users to use it faster and more comfortably. If autonomous driving has already been achieved, is the interaction page above it simple and efficient enough? Are the function buttons clear enough at a glance? If a host factory cannot optimize these designs, its autonomous driving products will also be phased out.
Evolution
The concept of cars as "mass consumer goods" and the current concept of cars as "industrial products" will be completely different. The future of automobiles will present completely different directions due to the commercial and innovative cultures of different regions. Taking the iconic technology of autonomous driving, which has become a popular consumer product, as an example, with the maturity and mass production of this technology, there is now a conceptual outline of the future position of the United States, Europe, Japan, South Korea, and China in the automotive industry.
When we make this judgment, in addition to the traditional automotive industry, the technology and fashion fields are two important reference coordinates. Technological innovation is the beginning of the great changes in the future automotive industry, followed by the interpretation of popular culture in the design of industries in various countries, evolving into further market segmentation.
Functional technological innovation often establishes the core position of the industry, while appearance design determines further market segmentation.
This law has been confirmed by the evolution of traditional electronic products and later Internet electronic products: traditional electronic products have established the core position of the industry by technological innovation in the United States, and then Japan has followed through design and reliability. Cases can be simplified to IBM and Sony; Later, Internet electronic products were also the core position of the industry established by the United States through technological innovation, but South Korea replaced Japan. Through design and functional friendliness, cases can be simplified to Apple and Samsung.
The direct reason why Japan lost its previous position in the era of Internet electronic products is that it lost the voice of popular culture. In the traditional electronic era, Japanese films, music and fashion have a strong position, which is reflected in the strong aesthetic theory of electronic product design. In the era of Internet and electronics, Japan was surpassed by South Korea, which was also accompanied by the fact that Japan was replaced by South Korea in film, music, fashion and other fields as the dominant position in Asia.
The United States is deeply influenced by Japanese culture, so the changes in popular culture between Japan and South Korea are not very obvious. Uncle Bird's "Jiangnan Style" can be seen as an example. In China, this trend is even clearer. The "little fresh" style has changed from Japan to South Korea, and almost all of the popular items on Taobao are "Korean versions". Cafes and variety shows are also Korean oriented. Wangjing, one of the cultural centers in Beijing, is also a gathering place for Koreans.
The transfer of power between Japan and South Korea in popular culture is also reflected in the automotive industry. In recent years, there have been very few designs in Japan that have gained global reputation, but Hyundai and Kia have many, and as a result, they have quickly established their own market positions. Although the Korean culture has encountered difficulties recently, the advantages established through design still exist.
In the era of automobiles as a mass consumer product, the United States will still be the core of the industry, and competition between Japan and South Korea will be more intense. Automobiles are a much larger industry than television, computers, and mobile phones. Japan's industrial advantage is a talisman, but South Korea will also have a very good opportunity to approach or even catch up with Japan.
The impact will be on Europe, where the advantages established in the automotive industry and fashion field are rooted in cultural heritage. They are the birthplace of the automotive industry and modern fashion, thus occupying the core position of the industry. The subsequent series of innovations are built on the advantages of the size and cultural identity of the industry core.
In fact, in the mass consumer market, both cars and fashion in Europe have shown signs of fatigue, but they can maintain their position in the luxury and luxury sectors with the influence of cultural heritage. Furthermore, in the automotive field where technology plays a significant role, European luxury cars are facing challenges; In the fashion industry where technological forces are almost absent, Europe remains hegemonic.
Cars that have become popular consumer goods through technological innovation are no longer the same attributes as current cars, and brand new cars will also be taken over by popular culture in their design. Regardless of technological innovation or popular culture, Europe has no advantage. When the day comes when cars become popular consumer goods, the core position of Europe's automotive industry may not be guaranteed, and the luxury car market will also face a more severe environment.
Summary: China
What kind of status will China have? In the Internet electronic era, we are almost independent of the world system (especially software). What can really form an advantage is the low-cost advantage laid down by low-cost labor. But in terms of courage, enthusiasm, and capital support in the face of innovation, besides the United States, only China can be called the number one in the world, which is reflected in China's rich business innovation.
Our constraints are cultural weaknesses. Lack of communication, therefore lack of integration, and therefore cannot be widely accepted, determine the disadvantaged position of popular culture, which has been proven in traditional automotive, electronic products, and fashion fields. Still making progress, but lacking breakthroughs.
Faced with the elusive concept of popular culture and even culture, we may try to understand it in a quantifiable way:
Steve Jobs' understanding of consumer goods has shaped Apple, and today's Apple still inherits this. For example, the quote from Jonathan Ive earlier, such as the design of peripheral interfaces and Touch Bar, were all created by a way of thinking that satisfies novice users and requires them to pay a cost. This way of thinking is a form of culture.
The aesthetic expression of culture has become popular culture, with Sony's design, Apple's design, and Samsung's design being forms of popular culture. These designs can be transformed into positive impressions and are based on sufficient cultural exchange.